Finance Investment Movement 52

Barely a few weeks before the year ends, more conflicts have occurred. The first bombshell arrived when the South Korean President, for scant reasons, suddenly declared martial law. That caused a major revolt within the government and citizenry, forcing him to retract shortly after. We won't know the real reasons but the damage was already done. There seems to have internal conflicts and such a power move failed miserably. Not long after, Syria's rebel group mounted a coup that fortunately ended quickly without bloodshed. It just adds another layer of uncertainty into the Arab zone. The wider implication is that it foments more worries ahead. There is no peace when people feel insecure. Is this the signal for a coming big reset?

From an investment perspective, things appear stuck at a crossroad. We are anticipating great changes next year due to Trump's incoming. Should we fear another wave of inflation? I decided to lock in a fixed 2.58% home loan for two years and that brought a bit of comfort. The sweet spot would be for interest rates to hover around 3-3.5% so that I could put cash to work. The plan is to earn from the spread and return to the CPF OA housing refund, indirectly repaying the loan partially.

Tip: Lucashof Graburgunder Trocken 2022, pear citrus, white flowers with good acidity

Month of November 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

There was nothing more important this month than the release of PSLE results. One week prior, the youngest son's school held a celebration and farewell ceremony for the graduating cohort. That was a first as the other two sons did not get the same send-off. It was a nice touch as each form teacher spoke about his/her class before a video montage, with some student performances in between. Later, as I told my son, this also marked the end of my decade of morning school ferry service for this alma mater. It gave me great satisfaction as I watched my boys transform from mini tots to young men, standing below my waist then, till past my shoulder. Nevertheless, we still had to go back to school for results day. Our whole family went out to give full support. It didn't go exactly the way I envisioned. As we arrived, the parking in school was full, so they alighted while I waited outside the school gate, hoping to squeeze my way in. Then, the guard shut the gate and waved me off despite being first in line. I got a little anxious as I couldn't attend the principal address with the subsequent result slip handout and capture the son's moment. The driver of the car behind came over. It was my primary two form teacher! "Hi, Mrs M", came my greeting. She needed to get into school and advised me not to wait. So I reversed and made my way to a nearby parking area before walking back in double steps. Barely five minutes in, I was waiting to cross the traffic light when my wife called. The event was over! So it was there that I received them and saw the long awaited figures. The youngest son had scored the same as his second brother. What a joy! It was what I had hoped for. Giving him a hug, I let out, "Yes, you did it!" The credit goes to my wife for encouraging and putting him through intensive practice. All the effort paid off and we were proud parents in completing the primary school journey.

Over two weekends, my wife and I attended a couple of wine warehouse sales. One was at Pivene and the other at Cornerstone Wines. Delightfully, there were samples to try at the former and we were treated to some really tasty and good value ones. Even for novices, one could tell the good and great ones apart. Such was the apparent difference and the price tags showed. In total, the spending came to about $1000 and would be savoured during the festive period.

I invited ten friends for dinner at my place, intending to cook instead of buying the usual takeaway. On that morning, a trip to the wet market was made to get the freshest arrivals i.e clams, prawns and fish. Then a detour to the butchery for beef where I eyed two pieces of angus ribeye. However, the counter staff suggested that due to the big group, it was better to get a bigger quantity. He took out a 2kg slab of wagyu picanha and confidently pitched it as tastier than my choice. The price per kg was also cheaper. I was hesitant about the cooking method but decided to try it. Everyone enjoyed the tenderness and surprisingly non-oily texture. Complemented with a beautiful cabernet, the meal was elevated to an upper level. I am a new convert to this beef cut.

Tip: Glenfiddich 26 Years Grande Couronne, lavender and raisin, smooth and delicate

Finance Investment Movement 51

At last, we have a winner. Americans voted and got who they wanted. The US election started and ended just as quickly when the margin of a Trump victory was staggeringly wide. The convincing win was punctuated with the Republicans controlling both houses. People are suddenly brimming with confidence over the economy as the anticipated revisions of the Biden policies begin.

Are we ready for Trump 2.0? What's certain is that the unpredictability factor will remain. Over the past four years, the US economic state hasn't changed much. Debts are higher, jobs growth is so-so, wealth gap appears to be wider etc although to be fair, it's the same situation in other countries. Every nation was caught in the inflationary hot bath as global trade tried to find a new balance in supply and demand while managing a few conflicts. Yet, the situation has not stabilized. It was always an uphill task for the Democrats. Safe to assume that their report card isn't great and Harris tried but couldn't convince the American regular citizen. After all, she's a major part of the current team and therefore unfortunately tagged as the echo of Biden, unable to shift away from his shadow. In this context, Trump returned at the right time to offer his version of a trade fix. That might actually be useful. His biggest tool is the USD. It may seem to be a diminishing influence but I don't think there's any alternative out there at least over the next term, not even Bitcoin. Hopefully, he has learnt some lessons from the previous experience and make better judgements. If so, the Republicans are here to stay (as mentioned here). Perhaps he can start by earning some goodwill through stopping the Russian war, as he so proclaimed, but as with anything Trump, who knows...

Meanwhile, I have received the $200 NS credit and promptly transferred to CPF. My three year old Apple watch broke down after a swim. Took it to a repair shop and spent $58 on OEM battery. Now, it doesn't hold a charge well and drains off within a day. I intend to buy a new watch once this burns out. Christmas is approaching and sales promotions are out in full force. This is a good time to renew subscriptions, buy maintenance parts such as water filter medium or stock up on non perishable items.

Tip: Famille JM Cazes Pauillac 2019, young forward suppleness, graphite in a medium body, inviting

Month of October 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

It was the youngest son's birthday and he chose to have dinner at Haidilao. Throughout the 1.5 hours, just about every surrounding table had a celebration as well. The vibrant atmosphere was kept high as the birthday song got repeated every ten minutes. Meanwhile, a Face Mask Changing performer made his rounds and when the last mask came off, he joined other staff as they danced to the tune of Ke Mu San. There was a funny moment as I saw the noodle guy flipping his dough in the air and trying hard to avoid the dancers. It was nice to see many happy young and old faces. My son, however, declined to have the cake as he's rather shy and didn't want the loud music blasting towards him.

But that wasn't the end of the celebration. Two days later, the wife planned a surprise outing. It was to be a mini golf activity near Boat Quay. We arrived at noon and there was an element of puzzle as the game area was decorated like an escape room. There were 18 holes with various degrees of difficulty and as we passed through, clues were scattered around. In the end, the kids had much fun and didn't focus on solving the mystery. After a late lunch at Publico, everyone got home full and contented.

Once in a while, things happen. The car battery died while the wife was at a mall. It's my fault as I wanted it to last another two months before replacing, so the delay cost me an additional $80 for onsite assistance. My helper needed a loan as her son's agriculture business collapsed due to persistent unfavorable weather. We agreed to advance her salary by six months. To end on a positive note, I finally convinced myself to purchase a putter and set of second hand golf irons to hopefully play better. With proper maintenance, they should last a lifetime so I take it as a long term investment. 

Tip: Domini Veneti Amarone 2020, fresh blackberries, inviting nose, good value

Finance Investment Movement 50

The pieces are starting to fall in place. A groundswell of goodwill has gradually built up among the people, featuring messages of inclusivity, resilience and aspirations. Soon, the electoral boundary committee would be convened. That's my guess. What's giving the vibes? In short, the government has begun to implement some feel good measures.

Giving out cost of living vouchers and framing it as a long term action will no doubt stick in the minds of recipients. Highlighting that Singapore lives in a dangerous world amid geopolitical conflicts reinforces the need for social stability that goes hand in hand with political continuity. Getting closure from the cases of Shanmugam-Balakrishnan and more importantly, of Iswaran (swift conclusion without contest and some more against a formidable sharp-tongued lawyer) is a major confidence boost to showcase the government's integrity. PM Wong had met a fair number of leaders in a short period and by going around Asean recently, underscored his good rapport and acceptance into the big league. Add in some sprinkles of attention towards climate change, family friendly policies and long term urban planning. Put together, these reputation building moves basically underline the message of safe stewardship under the current team. It's impressive and my opinion is there are more happy citizens than unhappy ones. Small incidents like cyclist road behaviour, MRT breakdown, debate over the purpose of district mayors or NTUC's political affiliation are not acute enough to score big points for the opposition. So, as the school holidays approach, it would be a good time to hold an election, especially after the US one. A Trump victory can accelerate the cause. Better hurry lest the COE spikes even more or wait for Pritam's fate to be decided? 

The declining yield scenario has started. Fixed deposits or Tbills are generally around 3%, with room for further drop. By the end of the year, I reckoned the risk free rate to be at 2.5% and fair premium to be the same amount. Therefore, anything above 5% is worth looking at. Many Reits are still available for that return but I chose to go with Pimco bond fund this month as my observation over months showed that it could retain value and get dividends of about 6.2% pa. At the moment, it's still a small portion and I hope to accumulate more. Also, I'm building up ammunition for higher value option trades.

Tip: Sterling’s Vintner Collection 2021 Cab Sav, regular and predictable, for a night sip

It's All In The Mind

Close your eyes and try to imagine what a good life is. Is it lying on the beach, playing with your dog or going on holiday etc? These are things that most people wish to do on a regular basis but yet can't seem to achieve. The typical reasons are lack of time and money. For those who are earning an income, why even with each passing year or increment, you still feel like it's a never ending catch up?

The author's intent is simple; strengthen the mind with positive and practical thoughts. Avoid the bad and the good will arrive. Accept that luck plays a part in life and go through tough times with a stoic attitude. Adjust to the environment by making small changes of improvement. Gradually, the mental wall becomes stronger and mature. Experience counts. The book consists of 3-4 pages per chapter. Each brings a story or example on how to view situations so as to spot fallacies and change the perspective. Therefore, success is not what the society defines but by what you perceive. Every individual has his struggles so it's down to a person to chart his own life path. If you can resist comparisons and be content, that in itself is a successful outcome. It's fascinating that through thousands of years of evolution, technology has advanced so much yet the brain remains stuck in its primitive instincts. Having a bad day? Close your eyes and recall a happy moment. You would instantly feel better. See, a little distraction and the brain can be manipulated to uplift the mood.

This book was given by my wife as a birthday gift. I gladly recommend it to anyone.

Tip: Brown Brothers Moscato 2022, like a fruit soda, goes well with Chinese food

Month of September 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

I accompanied my eldest son for the NS medical screening. When we arrived at 815am, a few staff and fellow attendees were around. It took around ten minutes to do the registration as parents’ particulars and medical history needed confirmation. A preemptive notification was given as the subsequent series of checks required around four hours. I had arranged to handle some errands nearby and decided to walk. On Google map, it showed 1.6km which was well within reach. Fifteen minutes later, the slopy and uneven path led to an overhead bridge to get across AYE! It was an unusual experience to have busy expressway traffic underneath. The sun was bright as my sweaty feet quickly shuffled to the destination. This was not the short walk I envisioned and made uncomfortable by the wrong shoes. After completing my tasks, bus was the preferred mode of transport.

On the eve of PSLE, it was announced that the MRT line had broken down over several stations. The crowd situation nightmare began in the evening. What a bad timing. As I overheard on a radio discussion about the impact and public reactions, it was sobering to remind ourselves that Singapore enjoys one of the best global transport systems. Plaudits have to be given for an ever better connected network and beautiful environment. The cycle paths and walkways are well designed although I think cyclists should not be allowed on roads for their safety. When it comes to a breakdown, just stay calm and find an alternative way. There's no need to rant and berate the ground staff. The youngest son was unaffected as he went about his preparations. In another two days, he can be released from tuition classes, strict diet and game time restrictions. I'm very anxious on whether he can make it to the school of his choice.

Tip: Long Meadow Ranch Chardonnay 2019, white flowers, buttery straw and walnut

Finance Investment Movement 49

I attended a forum on the future of US China relations. With the US elections about two months away, nervous beats are starting to appear in many observers' minds. Are we going to see a return of Trump or a victorious Harris?  Ever since Biden dropped out, polls (depending on which one) indicated that Harris had slowly chipped away the lead and likely to be ahead at this moment. Actually, if we look closer, it doesn't really matter. The attitude towards China will remain the same; guarded and distrusting. Under Biden, the tariffs against Chinese imports have increased and so this shall remain the same regardless of who wins. Military competition will be as fierce as before, whether it's an ally (eg Philippines) issue, Taiwan or the seas around Japan. Power and strength have to be projected. Troop deployments and exercises are expected to hold steady. Technology know-how will continue to be protected. Intellectual property, advanced manufacturing techniques and associated talent are highly regarded by both countries. After all, high level research and innovations are keys to competitive advantage. Opinions over support for Russia, Israel or Ukraine will differ due to an ideological clash. Currency wars have already began and led to changes in trade settlement and supply chain flows. Bitcoin and other hard assets will rise in importance. The incoming US President has a debt headache to resolve as well. Whoever that is, forget about being supreme and has to focus on repairing the balance sheet. These are trends that are not easily reversed whether a Republican or Democrat government is in place. However, whoever wins the White House will likely ensure a 12-year cycle of uninterrupted party rule. Neither the US nor China will yield ground that suggests weakness. Therefore, the consequence of the next decade is very much at stake.

At the moment, the direction of interest rate is very clear. Months ago, China already made a first cut, earlier than other major economies. Another disparity is it started from a lower band of around 3.5% as compared to 5% elsewhere. That is a result of accumulated trade surplus and non printing of money. Even so, China could not prevent a slowdown as the property market imploded, job seekers get displaced, domestic spending reduced and factories relocate overseas. When the top two economies are having problems, the inevitable constraints will be felt everywhere else, leading to more disagreements. A multipolar world is starting to emerge where interests are contained in each bloc and angst of different development stages become more pronounced. Trade conflicts, environmental concerns, access to water, epidemics, frequent natural disasters, population aging, violent crimes, scams etc are signs of a growing and bloated world. It's not that such issues didn't occur centuries ago, just that they are more regular features nowadays. 

We are constantly adjusting amidst a bumpy ride. Unfortunately, there's not much I can do for the above. So it's better that I make preparations to be debt free and achieve financial security as soon as possible. As of this month, CPF investment into T-bills have stopped and the SSB layer is set. For the remainder of the year, I am going to experiment by channeling about 30% savings per month into bonds or equities. The balance will be kept for rainy days.

Tip: Terlano Pinot Bianco 2022, grassy lime, raspberry behind while pushing forward mineral notes

Month of August 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

I used to be an active sportsperson and enjoyed the training along with the thrills of competitions. Then, I just stopped. It can be attributed to age, work requirements and most acutely, the loss of fellow players in team sports as life paths diverged. There was a period of time when for five full years, I did not go for a run, gym or engage in a sport activity. But there's something I still loved doing and that's being a couch sports fan. When it comes to majors or finals, it's highly likely I would set aside time especially if it involves my favourite athletes. Naturally, the recently concluded Olympics was an exciting time for me. Like three years ago, I tried to watch at least one event a day. While I wished Nadal could have gone further or Kean Yew to overcome his injury, a loss can be hard to take, even for a non-participant like me as I can empathize the agony. World no. 1 Yingsha would have been crestfallen for her meek surrender, as do the Japanese mixed judo and volleyball teams. On the other side, I witnessed brilliance as Biles, Lee and Wang, Scheffler performed amazingly to win their golds. I lost count the number of times I thought the badminton duo was on their way to elimination. That men's golf final round was spectacular (also the men's 100m sprint). Usually, it would have two or three leading the way but there were at least six golfers charging forward, trading birdie after birdie. It was riveting throughout as the twists and turns kept coming, the leaderboard positions interchanged, until the final hole, the medal places were still undecided. Fleetwood scuffed his chip at the decisive moment. I sat through three hours of entertainment without a drink in hand! Nothing beats watching a live event as my adrenaline ebbed and flowed with the proceedings, bringing back that familiar feeling when I was younger. And that's why I love sports.

The first part of my youngest son's finals just ended. That's the PSLE oral examinations. His weakness was in Mother Tongue. When I asked for his take on it, he mentioned it was quite difficult as the revisions he's done for thirty topics didn't turn up. A slight look of dejection on his face while my heart sank a little. In that moment, I had to adjust my tone to encourage him to look positively and prepare for the next final. He reverted to his chirpy self upon lunch being served. Next month will be a stressful one.

I met up with a close friend, same age as me, over coffee time. Few months ago, a medical checkup detected abnormality in her heart valve and a keyhole surgery ensued. She claimed jokingly to be Iron Woman due to a piece of nickel titanium inserted. Amazingly, she has more or less resumed regular exercises and diet. We switched conversation seamlessly between children education, health, spousal relationship, food… I regard her as my all-in-one friend, a rarity and treasure.

Tip: Chateau Talbot 2017, barley perfume, pumpkin layered over fine tannins, good persistency

Finance Investment Movement 48

I had a lunch gathering and there were people of various ages. We started off commenting on how the thinking differs across generations especially with regard to work attitudes. Then it spawned the curiosity on the definition of Gen X, Y, Z, Millenial, Alpha, Beta etc... I wonder who came up with these classifications where there's no easy way to definitively pinpoint the exact crossover. It's also difficult to remember how the ages are defined from start to end of a generation. The conversation drifted to the next election and the impression of our newly installed Prime Minister. On this, there was surprising consensus. LKY set the standard, LHL did an admirable job to maintain much of it and LW is an unknown for now. Just based on his last few public addresses, everyone agreed that LW lacked a certain finesse. He's trying hard but perhaps a little too hard in his delivery to the point of being unnatural. People don't feel his sincerity but this might be unfair to judge. Hence, the next cabinet lineup would be crucial as a stabilizer. We felt it's better to retain much of the older ministers even if some of them have indicated a wish to stand down.

I hope LW plays his cards right. The consequences are considerable. Singapore needs an ever flowing stream of investors to sustain employment, promote trade, keep social harmony, maintain economic competitiveness and give hope to the next generation. Housing and aging population are two topics that LW will address in his next public speech. In Chinese, there's a saying, "万事俱备，只欠东风 Preparations are ready, only the East wind is lacking." The Olympics success is that wind in the sail, pun intended, that gives him the perfect platform. Here's a young man with an inspirational story. Present it well and LW will build trust and go into the next election with confidence. There is no room for failure. The pressure is on him to polish up before this Sunday and deliver an above average performance. The stock, bond and currency markets will give their verdict the next day.

Tip: De Dassault 2013, dried petals, peach perfume, chocolate and a light touch

Month of July 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

And just like that, the eldest son had completed the foundation coursework although there's concern he might fail one subject and therefore having to repeat a semester. Fortunately, he passed, by a whisker. Meanwhile, he has two months break and I'm encouraging him to do some meaningful activity rather than coop up at home, mostly playing games or lazing. It's one thing to say yet whether he's receptive is another matter. At work, I can set a direction for others to follow. As a parent, my words do not yield equal influence. I think most of us are caught in a similar situation.

After three intensive days of research, the itinerary for an upcoming holiday was finalized. The initial planning had begun three months prior and details were sketchy then. I showed a draft to the wife and she scrubbed off half the schedule since her preference was to go to a different part of the holiday destination. So I went about filling in the blanks while trying to retain some of the hotels already booked. In this exercise, there was a realization. It's indeed cheaper to pre-book hotels much earlier. There's savings of an average $50-$100 per night! Another tip would be to utilize cashback deals currently offered by Trust card which also gave better exchange rates. Also, opt to pay now rather than a later date as the charged foreign currency amount would translate to higher SGD.

Tip: Tatenokawa Seiryu Junmai Daiginjo, melon, grape musk, luscious and appetizing

Finance Investment Movement 47

On 1 Apr, SCB sent me an invitation offer to enjoy Exclusive Bonus Interest for four months (Apr to Jul) at an interest rate of 3.5%. Even though other banks or instruments out there had similar deals, I thought to take this up just because it could act like a four month fixed deposit except it's liquid. For users of the esaver account, it usually gave two months promotion each time, using incremental fresh funds as a criteria. So in April and May, the bonus interest came on time i.e the last day of the month. June passed and I awaited the same outcome but did not receive. Maybe it was the weekend and the bank needed a couple of working days to process. I waited till 3 July and decided to contact the online chat. Customer service told me that I wasn’t entitled to June’s bonus since a new cycle of esaver promotion had begun. Since there was no balance increment in my account, it wasn't entitled to earn the bonus portion. This totally deviated from my understanding of the terms and conditions. Obviously, it was a disappointment and I didn't want to argue my case. Without wasting time, I looked for another avenue to park these idle funds and fortunately, HSBC EGA had an offer. Five days later, the Exclusive Bonus appeared. Be hopeful, there is sunshine after the rain. Customer service staff are humans too and they make mistakes.

There’s been not much investment activity as I ponder whether to subscribe to Astrea 8. Share prices have rebounded nicely amid expectations of an interest rate cut. To that, I think it depends on the US election outcome. If Trump wins, I am concerned that inflation would return, thereby keeping rates high. Meanwhile, enjoy what the high yield savings accounts can give.

Tip: Petrolo Torrione 2019, young and approachable, ripen peach with cedar wood, soft tannins

Month of June 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

I took time off on a Friday, aiming to do some activities with the kids before school reopens. The weather looked good so I proposed to go cycling. The younger two were keen while the eldest had to attend school. After fifteen minutes preparation, we drove towards East Coast Park but after considering the crowd situation, the idea got dismissed. So I detoured to Safra Punggol as there was ample parking, breakfast choices and bicycle rental facility. It was already 11am when we finished a simple meal at Heavenly Wang. The sky shone brightly when we began the journey and there was a three hour limit before the bicycle return. I sketched out the plan to the boys i.e Punggol PCN, Paris Ris Park, Changi beach and U-turn with a stop in between for lunch. We looked at the signboards and took off. After an hour, I realized something was amiss. The GPS indicated we were off track and in the direction of Sengkang East. That's odd as we followed the route closely. On backtrack, we had missed the turn towards Paris Ris due to construction reroute. Since it was unlikely to complete the original plan in time, I decided to loop around Coney Island and back to Safra. Once past the island gate, there was no turning back. We had to pick up pace as grey clouds gathered. The path was gravelled, unlike the smooth paved PCN. Under tree cover, we could feel increasing tiny water droplets on our faces. It became a race against the incoming rain and we barely made it into a shelter before the downpour. A heavy lashing for twenty minutes. Once it was safe to continue, we made our way back with half an hour of rental time to spare. Recalling now, we were lucky with the weather. The sun was mostly covered in the beginning and breezy throughout. There wasn't much crowd and we rode leisurely, enjoyed peaceful nature views and fortunately didn't get too far from the start point. The boys stayed calm especially the youngest one who was doing his third and probably longest cycle. More importantly, besides some dirt, there was no injury and we even discovered a great fried rice for our belated lunch!

It's officially half a year gone. How do you feel so far? Has there been any new discovery or just the same old routine? I had been busy like a squirrel preparing for winter. It's not just work. In order to help my son, I started to watch a series of youtube lessons to relearn accounting basics, hoping to tutor him. Associated with that is to utilize Copilot to improve recording of important notes for quick revision. Meanwhile, there's also an upcoming holiday trip and quite some time was spent to research the itinerary. Health wise, more golf practices were taken in while I managed to break 5km run (without stopping). The last time I did this was during army days. Though the pace had slowed considerably, I'm relieved there's been no knee or other joint complaints.

Tip: Duhart Milon 2019, mixed berries, menthol, eucalyptus, better with more time

Finance Investment Movement 46

A colleague, S, left the office to become a stay home mum. For months, S had struggled to make this decision. There's three mouths to feed and they're less than ten years old. Despite her husband being a geospatial engineer and drawing a good salary, cost of living pressures meant that her income was critical to maintain living standards. Yet, it was he who encouraged her to quit. Other colleagues mentioned that they had been having conflicts at home. For a period of time, their children took turns to fall sick and both had to take leave often which caused disharmony at work. In the end, S chose family. I enquired the opinions of her supervisor and heads of other departments. Everyone acknowledged her hardworking attitude and friendly disposition. However, S had probably hit the ceiling in her role as sales manager. Her numbers had not improved for months (maybe even years), there was no drive to meet clients or chase new projects. Over time, she had become more of an administrator and deviated from a senior role model. S was deemed to have stagnated and occupied an awkward position. The company could not reassign nor demote her. Such actions meant a big salary drop. On the day of departure, it was an emotional and tearful one.

Investing is tough work. When do you take profit or cut loss? How much faith to hold onto a position or idea? I thought the working life of S is a great example of a financial journey. It is full of ups and downs. It needs careful nurturing. When a person puts money into an investment eg stock, there's a conviction and commitment. It takes time to prove the worthiness of this initiation. Just like S who first joined the company and grew from a rookie salesperson into her managerial role. For the first ten years, things turned out great as she progressed smoothly with ease. A stock may also be a winner during this period and churn out dividends along with capital gains as a company excelled. Both of these situations met expectations. There's nothing much else to do, right?

S started well and settled comfortably. Too comfortable in fact. That's a mistake. It was in difficult times such as financial crisis and Covid that her sales figures were closely scrutinized, much like how a stock slowly drifts downwards during business downcycle. The realization of this decline caused a dilemma. Is it better to cash out and perhaps take a small loss? Should it allow time to recover? After all, S had been with the company for so long. She basically stopped growing in the last ten years and chose to cruise along. In my opinion, the killer blow occurred when S was somehow unmotivated to reset her thoughts and try new sales approach. Her burden increased with each new kid while she remained in situ. I liken this to a stock with no catalyst when the business environment was unfavorable and expenses continued to increase. Her career was like a tree that decomposed from within. The eventual outcome was predictable.

If a person (or a stock) does not have good foundation and seek improvement, a weak hand will sooner or later be exposed. S had planted firm roots in the beginning but forgot to add some fertilizers along the way. She was clearly lagging, disrupted by work and personal issues, then got squeezed out of the last tiny wiggle room she thought she had. The company witnessed her youth formation, marriage and motherhood but couldn't save her job. Still, she left a sweet encouragement note with a dose of gratitude. I asked her on the next steps. She said to take a temporary break, go for retraining and find a new job that suits her lifestyle. Probed further on the interest areas or preferred jobs, S shrugged and just smiled. In investing, it's important to identify one's risk appetite, goal, product preference and act to achieve it. Then it's about making small changes and adapt accordingly. Otherwise, as the story of S had shown, time could also be an Achilles heel.

Tip: Pastourelle Clerc Milon 2021, fresh violet, inviting and appetizing, light touch on the palate

Month of May 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

What life can give is always a surprise. You won't know what might happen the next day, month or year. One and a half years ago, I met a long lost neighbour, M (mentioned here). Since then, we occasionally had lunch. Well, his father passed away this month. I remember him as a stern person who was constantly out working and provided generously for his family. From young, I only had fleeting moments of interactions with him. As I stayed in the unit above, it was easy for me to frequent his home and that's where friendship with his children (2 sons, 2 daughters) blossomed. So at the wake, I was part sad and part excited. The moment I entered the door, the youngest son, H, immediately recognized, shook my hand and gave me a hug. Then the eldest sister, S, walked over and cheerfully called out my name. In that moment, I instantly felt the reconnection and teared up a little. These were my playmates whom I have not seen for more than 30 years! M gave a wave from his seat as he was busy with several people. Formalities over, H sat with me and we recounted our many wonderful memories. Times where we celebrated birthdays, squeezed into my aunt's car for school drop offs, played catching, travels together, tuition at the same table, snacking and basically goofing around. Midway, I interrupted him and put a finger on my lips as I walked over to a further table where his mum and second sister, L, were at. Both of them looked up when I extended a hand. Auntie B asked what's my surname and I answered. Then, she broke a big smile and L followed suit. "My boy! You have grown so much!" Auntie held onto my hand tightly as she exclaimed. "Yes Auntie B, it's been that long. I have missed you all so much." Again, I could feel a tear about to drop. The wake became a family reunion. I stayed for three hours and spoke to them individually. Previously, when I moved out of the unit, it was to return home to stay with my parents and I don't remember a farewell of any kind. There were no mobile or email contacts at that time. Never did I expect to be reunited with them on such an occasion. Before leaving, all of them shook my hand and told me to keep in touch. For sure, Auntie, my brothers and sisters, little brother is now only a call away.

Over a sumptuous lunch, cousin B revealed he had finally achieved FIRE. His last day of work was two weeks before and been busy packing up for a long overseas trip. As B said, he had not really taken a decent holiday break since he started working. But his situation is quite unique. B's family previously lived in Australia due to his job posting under a local big name company. Then he switched career and joined another local big brand, this time based in Singapore along with his family. Our relationship is as close as it can get, I stayed in his house (the unit mentioned in above paragraph) since baby time, under the foster care of his mother. He and his elder brothers took good care of me and I treat them as my siblings. Obviously, I'm very happy that B's life turned out well and he's probably the envy of everyone. Yet I am a little downcast because deep down, I know the next lunch date would likely be far away. One year ago, B's wife and daughter had moved to Australia (again!) for the latter to further her studies. They bought a house and barring any situation change, B will fulfill his dream of living the rest of his life there. He had planned for this a long time ago, I witnessed from when we were young, he spoke of intentions and with careful spending, investment luck and solid saving, he's earned it. His so called overseas trip is a relocation exercise and although he promised that he has not turned his back on Singapore, the opportunity to catch up would be limited. When lunch ended, after many jokes and laughter, B let out his final secret of the day. Shaking my hand, he said, "Take care, I'm leaving tomorrow night. Come visit me when you can." Bon voyage, I wish you the very best in life, Brother B.

The kids had completed school exams so my wife and I made plans to go to Johor on the eve of Vesak Day with some friends. The guys penciled in morning golf while the ladies could do brunch and shop. A few days before the trip, plans changed. Security at the checkpoints was tightened due to a recent terrorism related incident. Traffic to pass through customs was a big question mark. Rather than cancelling, two couples decided to go in a day earlier. It was a working Monday. I had to finish a meeting, pick my wife up and we were on our way, breezing through Woodlands Checkpoint at 4pm on an acceptable forty minutes jam. The other couple joined us by evening and we went for Mala dinner. Settling down for drinks later at 8pm, a thought suddenly came to us. Immediately, I texted the two other golf flight mates. They must have already finished work and we had spare beds due to a room upgrade. Within minutes, they had responded and decided to make the journey to sleepover with us! We arrived back at hotel around 1130pm and they were having dinner/supper nearby. After a shower, my wife went to bed while I stayed up to open the door for the friend staying with us. I was half asleep while watching television and then jolted up by door knocks. A quick greeting later, I left my friend to do his stuff and headed to bed. A quick glance at the clock showed 1am. The golf kakis were up at 6am and gathered for breakfast. It was then we found out that the two of them arrived so late due to a series of mix up. One, they ate at a place beside what they thought the hotel we were in which had a totally different name. Two, in a rush, they headed to the next hotel which was the right name but the wrong branch location. Three, I had told them to park at level three to facilitate golf bag transfer. Upon reaching the correct hotel, due to confusing signage, they ended up at level four and doubt crept in when they didn't see our cars. Fortunately, they managed to reach our friend in the other room. In total, it took them one hour to go around JB city centre when they were actually seven minutes drive away. The wives laughed so hard after hearing this and one commented, "Next time don't assume... hahahahhhaha."

Tip: Gerard Bertrand Cigalus 2021, explosive scent, delicious honeysuckle and stonefruit

Finance Investment Movement 45

Sometimes, you know an inevitable situation is about to occur. It may take months or years to conclude. Yet, there's nothing you can do or perhaps choose not to intervene. Take for example the recent closure of Thambi magazine store at Holland Village. My last visit was 1.5 years ago (mentioned here). When I was growing up, it's one of the many physical stores that peddled magazines and publications of various types, from sports to politics to fashion. To me, Thambi stood out (from Bras Basah, Kinokuniya or Borders) not that it had an amazing collection but because of its location. A corner away from the bustling world. A gathering spot for both students and working adults. A place where I could stand up reading a magazine while waiting for a friend to arrive or for the rain to pass. The nearby MRT station wasn't even in the plan at that time and even though the journey home took 45 minutes, it was an area I used to frequent. Unfortunately, the arrival of the internet sealed the fate of Thambi, akin to a stage 4 cancer diagnosis. I am one of the many guilty ones who stopped our patronage thereafter. Today, it's become a happy memory, one that I share with my wife.

Financial planning takes a long time. You have to start somewhere, build a portfolio up and let it roll. Similar to Thambi, the key is to have belief and remain steadfast in your work towards financial security. The lesson we can draw is also to prepare for changes and disruptions. Therefore, insurance and emergency funds are the foundation before any foray into other investments. I have put those in place while the SSB plan is still in progress. However, there's a bigger than expected renovation expense that's upcoming which I'm saving up for in the next few months.

Tip: Le Petit Caillou 2016, good nose, young berries, to be enjoyed now

Month of April 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

School just started for my eldest son at SIM. He's enrolled in the Management Foundation Study program which would eventually lead to a diploma and degree. For now, he's keen to get into accountancy. I recall my own study journey with fond memories and wish to be of help later on in finance related topics. The student mix is rather interesting; at least 50% foreigners from a variety of nationalities and they usually have to enroll for a language course previously. For the local males, they had either completed NS or ITE. So, that makes my son the youngest in the cohort. Talk about a small fish in a big pond! Good luck boy, may you prosper in the environment and enjoy the experience.

Was it a surprise when Singapore announced the PM transition decision? My sensing is, the timing is appropriate which gives the incoming PM options to explore. Therefore, depending on internal and external environmental factors, the ruling party could call an election a) as soon as possible if something major happens eg war events escalating to a severe level or b) after the National Day rally and up until next year if required. Meanwhile, the list of candidates to fill the various ministerial positions will be deliberated and careful considerations on which voting areas to deploy them. The objective is surely to win all seats but strategic actions must be taken to account for potential losses to opposition parties. This will be one of the earliest and important tests the incoming PM and his team must pass.

On a drizzly morning, I was on usual duty to send the kids to school. We were travelling on a downward sloping portion of CTE when the car in front of me braked suddenly. In response, I did the same and there was adequate safety distance to prevent a collision. But the driver behind didn't manage to do. My bumper got damaged as it sustained several cuts and scratches. Fortunately, none of us was injured. The next two days, I was trying to negotiate a private settlement with the other party but unable to reach a compromise after a series of checks with our workshops. So I had to file an insurance claim and it's now pending settlement.

In between my business travels, I managed to find time to visit some restaurants. This month, I tried lunch at Capasso and Ling Ling, afternoon drinks at Orh Gao Taproom and dinner at Dosukoi X Donpachi and Kura Oyster Highball Bar. Perhaps it was a lucky month as all of them were really good in their domain. Now, I have a few more places to go during odd hours such as 2pm or even 2am!

Tip: Almaviva 2017, herbaceous fruity notes, decent length, already good yet can wait a few years

Finance Investment Movement 44

I met a friend whose job is to monitor global properties and be involved in his company's decision on whether to invest eventually. It's a national topic of interest and our conversation started and ended without mentioning Singapore in between. So where's his radar pointing towards? First off, we agreed to write off China in the short term as the domestic economy is in a heap of trouble. Next, he felt that Australia's valuation was too high and couldn't justify capital yield returns. The focus moved to Europe and due to its expansive landscape, we spoke mainly on two countries. Germany is a no go. It had missed the opportunity to ride ahead of its neighbours. Since Brexit, this was the place where many financial headquarters were supposed to relocate but didn't materialize. Covid dealt a further blow where the tourist and exhibition sectors got hit hard and still not recovered yet. The car industry, where the Germans are arguably the continental kings, had fallen behind the electric vehicle trend. The top brands were out-competed by the Chinese and Japanese. Unless there's a drastic cut in production costs, it's difficult to see how Das Auto can retaliate effectively. What's left in Europe then is England. The economy is generally seen to be chugging nicely, the Pound is weak and the education industry could always depend on that few branded names. Therefore, it was concluded that London is an investible place and specifically only in student accommodation. Finally, my friend gave a vote of confidence to Japan as well, mainly because the Yen is very attractive and a property asset can be used as a hedge against inflation while borrowing cost will remain low for quite some time.

It so happened that I was asked to go look at industrial property in Johor as my company thought about moving to save cost. To my surprise, prices have increased at least double from my last recollection. Swathes of land were being cleared and there seem a buzz in the area. I met a few agents and the information collaborated. Maybe the Agong effect is about to be showcased.

Tip: Mondot 2019, bushwood with flowers, wakes slowly then presents a medium bodied bouquet

Month of March 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

I was privileged to be invited for lunch hosted by a prominent local businessman. Among the twenty attendees were mostly seniors in my industry and a few of my age group. We were brought to the penthouse level of a building that gave a bird’s eye view of the city landscape and served a proper Bordeaux amid six courses of wonderful modern Chinese cuisine. But to me, there was something even better. Candid sharing by everyone which was facilitated by the host asking simple and direct questions related to business challenges. He wanted to know how well Singapore’s SMEs are holding up. The often heard remarks such as lack of labour, input costs, inflation etc were presented. Those are problems but what are the counter measures, he asked and then added, sustainability mindsets could help to frame everyone’s next business decision better. To that, the older gentlemen became uncharacteristically silent. The bright and airy room suddenly turned gloomy. What an effective comeback, to the point and might have hurt a few resistant souls. He rattled off a few concrete examples from his business operations to complete the story. It felt like a teacher schooling children except the teacher addressed several of his students as elders. I was just taking mental notes and observed the posturing each took. Like the saying goes, there's no free lunch in this world, yet I enjoyed a lunch that was not only free but one that also provided honest feedback and meaningful conversation.

Since my nose operation last June, I was due for a final review. The doctor noted my slight weight loss and recommended to stay away from egg and dairy related products. After a quick scan, he declared himself satisfied and cleared me in a medical sense. It's a relief and what happens next depends on my discipline and luck, hopefully there's no recurrence for the rest of my life.

The National School Games has returned once again. In the sweltering heat, the children competed for honours while parents watched on. I could see the youngest son performing well alongside his rugby teammates and their progress was clear. In fact, most schools showed improvements. However, the local sports scene is poor. With twenty schools in the competition, there were about seven head coaches (excluding teacher in charge) doubling up for referee duties alongside some paid ones. Essentially, one could referee a subsequent game opponent. Some of the coaches even worked for various schools that could potentially meet in a match up. When I asked my son's coach on his view, he lamented that the career as a sports coach was not great and the number of coaches decreased during Covid. He's in his early forties and doing this out of interest. In Singapore, there's only around fifteen full time rugby coaches and this pool is aided by part timers.

Tip: Bourgueil Gauthier Pere and Fils 2020, inky purple, sweet aroma and soft body

Finance Investment Movement 43

We live in an amazing world full of flora and fauna that never ceases to surprise. The number of undiscovered species probably outweigh the current known numbers. I am also constantly bewildered by activities that go around the world. Hundred thousands fans flooded Singapore for a series of concerts. The humanitarian crisis at Gaza has many sympathizers yet no one seems to be able to lend a concrete hand. Nividia rises like a rocket to the moon. America can only produce two presidential candidates close to 80 years old. Together, they form a very odd impression to me. Gold, bitcoin and US stock market converge to hit all time high at the same period. For investors, it's a confusing time amid the differing signals. I believe in staying in the market although circumstances meant that entry timing play an important role.

While I await lower stock prices, money still needs to work. One of the best offers is the Moomoo cash fund subscription promotion. At 6.8% pa return, it's hard to beat. Considering that I had taken part in the previous campaign, therefore it was an easy decision to put fresh funds this round. Another is the HSBC ega which offered up to 4.65% pa with credit card spend. Then there is the latest Tbill yielding 3.78% pa and my CPF along with SRS went into it.

Tip: Chateau Lamouroux 2011, good grip of tannin with earthy undertone, past peak freshness

Month of February 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

After receiving his O level results last month, I was more anxious than my son in going through the options available to him. He had set his mind on doing accountancy which I fully support. There's only one issue. His results put him on the borderline of qualifying for the course offered by the various polytechnics. By right, in the Joint Admission Exercise, it was a straightforward action to simply put the nearest school and fill up the gaps with other less desired courses. Even though this was done, we weren't fully convinced and signed up for the SIM Open House over the weekend. The 1.5h spent provided a different perspective. As the details became clear, we were amazed to find out that a student could go through a diploma in 20 months, complete National Service and return to finish a degree in another 24 months. This meant a time saving of about a year compared to the same cohort but the tuition fees would cost about $10k more. We signed up, submitted the required documents and waited about two weeks for the letter of admission offer. That's now accepted and school starts in April. If things go accordingly, my son would graduate when he reaches 22!

Health wise, it's been a bad month. I fell sick a week before CNY. It was on off fever, body aches and itchy throat. Laying in bed for two days while dosing medicines, it didn't feel like I could recover in time. Then the fever just disappeared one morning and I could participate in the festive visits. But my youngest son got afflicted next and he suffered the same symptoms which meant he had to miss school. The doctor mentioned that a trending viral fever was going around. Covid had caused people to be extra cautious with mask wearing so the general population immunity had decreased. It's made worse by mass gathering over meals so the infection rate was high. This turned out to be true, at least in my family's context, because the next victims were my wife and followed by second son. Till today, they are still coughing or easily fatigued. Hopefully they recover soon.

As per the usual CNY practice, I caught up with relatives not seen over the year. One had transferred to be principal of a special needs institution, one became the head chef at a Japanese restaurant, an aunt had a fall recently and likely needed back surgery, also enjoyed a steamboat lunch with another aunt etc. Many nephews and nieces had grown much since I last saw them. Unfortunately, I don't think they would ever enjoy the close bond I have with my cousins, established over many years of constant meetups since young.

Tip: Sogen Samurai Queen JD, nectarine with strong expression, like tasty spring water

Learning To Be Wealthy And Not Rich

I discovered this book by chance while waiting for a flight at Changi Airport. It caught my eye due to its author, Morgan Housel, whom I read some of his online articles and found them succinct. The book title was the other reason I chose it as I wanted to understand how big an influence that something as intangible as psychology has on a person dealing with money concepts.

Each chapter is quite short, 5 to 10 pages on average, perfect for quick burst of reading whenever I was free. But this took me six months to complete! I went through the book twice. The first round took four months because I was distracted and only touched it sporadically. Yet the topics were attractive enough to go for a second round so that I could really delve in the details. Don't be mistaken, it's not hard science and nothing formulaic.

The topics generally cover areas such as thinking in terms of risks, how a wealthy person behaves, encouragement to save and investing luck. Beneath all these lies the main issue; the individual's approach. While the market economy is a jumble with forces pulling in various directions, the key is to be clear on your own investment journey. The main thing I learnt is to strive for a life on my own terms, having money is just a tool to make it happen. Don't get disheartened when things go a little offside as it should be when events and policies are always unpredictable. This reminded me of the recently announced changes to the CPF SA which has big implications on many people. I took a deep breadth and decided it's time to move on. No point dwelling and better to spend the effort on recalibrating my portfolio.

Tip: Tenuta San Guido Alberto 2014, gum and raisin, chewy tobacco with uplifting nose

Finance Investment Movement 42

It’s been four years since my last visit to China. During these years, from what’s reported and feedback, it seemed China’s economy had taken a huge blow and people were generally downbeat. The property sector is badly impacted, foreign investors are pulling out and government financials are tight. So in my latest business trip, I went about to verify on the ground. My first night in Shanghai gave an indication. I was in Nanfeng City mall to grab dinner. The restaurants were mostly empty, maybe because it was a weekday. In the subsequent days, I spoke to bankers, friends and observed the surroundings. One of them told me the unofficial Shanghai population number had decreased from 11m to 9m. Many businesses had folded over the Covid period. Previously, the local government had pushed out low value manufacturing in order to focus on better quality sectors such as AI and banking. But with business owners relocating overseas, that had caused more damage than intended. Jobs were lost, wages stagnated and that’s affected domestic consumption. The banks are willing to lend but there are no takers. As a result, tax revenues dropped and government payments got delayed. So it’s become a vicious cycle that saps confidence. Worse, the BRI strategy had seen countries defaulting on debts and now appeared fragile with uncompleted projects mounting. Funds are urgently required yet the RMB is being weakened. Within the CCP, the military and appointed minister are being revamped to weed out corruption. The confluence of many factors have projected a certain idea of a weakened China. At the moment, nobody expects things to get better this year.

My opinion is China would require a monumental effort. Fortunately, they have the resources and structure to make quick changes. This might take a few years so I won't be in a hurry to make a bet. Therefore, it's better to play a safe card by putting funds in government bonds, the bluest chips or Etfs with non China focus.

Tip: Cloudy Bay Te Wahi Pinot Noir 2019, remarkable floral nose with good balance, a winemaker's pride

Month of January 2024

Updated finance page.

https://drinkingspot.blogspot.com/p/finance-sharing.html

Without fail, a new year is a much celebrated event as everyone attempts to forget the old and refresh the current state. I was home having dinner with friends and indulged in some good wines, with beef and pizzas complimenting as sides. It's amazing how conversations can flow for hours only to be punctuated by a glass refill. All you need are topics revolving around PTFS (Parenting, Travel, Food and Spouse). My kids were more enthusiastic about remaining awake for the countdown but in the end, none of us made it as we were in bed by 1030pm. I didn't even catch a glimpse of the television entertainment shows. 2024 welcomed me at dawn which hopefully brings a meaningful reset in another year of my mid life journey.

I was seated in a hall, next to my wife, and glanced straight ahead. There was a sea of blue and black. It was noisy as chatters rang out like bass concert music. One can hear it but cannot make out the words. The animated expressions received immediate reactions. Some were delighted faces, fingers cupping over their head, a number of shocked expressions or simply a clenched fist. Then, it was our turn. Seeing the lanky frame of my eldest son at the teacher’s desk, my heart beat really hard. He was about 20 meters away and walked towards us. Then the all important digits appeared. Two seconds later, there was a sense of relief. He had done better than expected for his ‘O’ levels! His decision in May last year paid off as Combined Science result was an A2. I gave a few pats on his shoulder and said, “Well done, Kor. This is great!” Around us, other parents continued their anxious wait. Inevitably, there were a few sobbing students who at that very moment, required no words but just a supportive arm. This was as nail biting as my time.

There were a number of events to highlight this month. The second son went on his 4D3N school adventure camp, came back sunburnt and flat out after canoeing, trekking and staying outfield. Most importantly, his attitude was positive. More good news was in store when the younger sons received their Edusave awards. Hopefully, such encouragement can spur the youngest one in his PSLE this year. My wish is for him to be in the same school as his second brother next year. I made a business trip to Selangor for a site visit and discussion on an old power plant that required maintenance. It's partly coal fired and budget was tight. Being environmentally friendly was not in consideration. Climate change will continue to hang around when state actors are oblivious to certain actions.

I probably over ate due to the following reasons. My family celebrated twice, one for good results and the other for the second son's birthday. My wife and I tried out new restaurants at Angie's Oyster Bar and Grill (for its cheap oyster deal) and Bistro Gaston (for something different). We also dined at past favourites such as Tapas 24 (happy hour drinks), Xiao Long Kan (good for value) and Chingu (bbq craving). Last but not least, the CNY lunches and dinners were in full swing.

Tip: Gallo Signature Cab Sav 2018, medium bodied, juicy and chewy tannin, fine expression

Finance Investment Movement 41

We began the year with financial markets welcoming the latest product entrant by way of the Bitcoin etfs. There's eleven of them approved and trading had already started. Well, this gives legitimacy for fund managers to gain exposure to a previously sidelined market space and I think there's more to come. As I have only a minor position in Bitcoin, it's not impacted me but if Ethereum etf goes the same way, that would be exciting. Finally, after 18 months leaving cryptocurrencies alone, I'm reviewing my portfolio to see if something needs to be done. This segment is going to heat up.

As interest rates plateau and likely to taper downwards, there's anxiety to find a longer term product to lock current rates in. I got a sizable fixed deposit that's about to mature which include Aud. Hoping that some banks come up with a CNY promo and I will be first in line to apply. Meanwhile, I still believe in the narrative whereby the SGD is overly strong against certain currencies and there's still room to exchange more.

Tip: Simon Bize Et Fils Beaune Blanc 2019, delicate white flowers with some zest, uncomplicated