I attended a forum on the future of US China relations. With the US elections about two months away, nervous beats are starting to appear in many observers' minds. Are we going to see a return of Trump or a victorious Harris? Ever since Biden dropped out, polls (depending on which one) indicated that Harris had slowly chipped away the lead and likely to be ahead at this moment. Actually, if we look closer, it doesn't really matter. The attitude towards China will remain the same; guarded and distrusting. Under Biden, the tariffs against Chinese imports have increased and so this shall remain the same regardless of who wins. Military competition will be as fierce as before, whether it's an ally (eg Philippines) issue, Taiwan or the seas around Japan. Power and strength have to be projected. Troop deployments and exercises are expected to hold steady. Technology know-how will continue to be protected. Intellectual property, advanced manufacturing techniques and associated talent are highly regarded by both countries. After all, high level research and innovations are keys to competitive advantage. Opinions over support for Russia, Israel or Ukraine will differ due to an ideological clash. Currency wars have already began and led to changes in trade settlement and supply chain flows. Bitcoin and other hard assets will rise in importance. The incoming US President has a debt headache to resolve as well. Whoever that is, forget about being supreme and has to focus on repairing the balance sheet. These are trends that are not easily reversed whether a Republican or Democrat government is in place. However, whoever wins the White House will likely ensure a 12-year cycle of uninterrupted party rule. Neither the US nor China will yield ground that suggests weakness. Therefore, the consequence of the next decade is very much at stake.
At the moment, the direction of interest rate is very clear. Months ago, China already made a first cut, earlier than other major economies. Another disparity is it started from a lower band of around 3.5% as compared to 5% elsewhere. That is a result of accumulated trade surplus and non printing of money. Even so, China could not prevent a slowdown as the property market imploded, job seekers get displaced, domestic spending reduced and factories relocate overseas. When the top two economies are having problems, the inevitable constraints will be felt everywhere else, leading to more disagreements. A multipolar world is starting to emerge where interests are contained in each bloc and angst of different development stages become more pronounced. Trade conflicts, environmental concerns, access to water, epidemics, frequent natural disasters, population aging, violent crimes, scams etc are signs of a growing and bloated world. It's not that such issues didn't occur centuries ago, just that they are more regular features nowadays.
We are constantly adjusting amidst a bumpy ride. Unfortunately, there's not much I can do for the above. So it's better that I make preparations to be debt free and achieve financial security as soon as possible. As of this month, CPF investment into T-bills have stopped and the SSB layer is set. For the remainder of the year, I am going to experiment by channeling about 30% savings per month into bonds or equities. The balance will be kept for rainy days.
Tip: Terlano Pinot Bianco 2022, grassy lime, raspberry behind while pushing forward mineral notes
No comments:
Post a Comment