Finance Investment Movement 56

Three months into the year and I have already hit my portfolio improvement target. It's peeking out at 5.6% after being boosted by rise in ST Eng and cash savings. If not for the drop in crypto prices, the result would have looked even better. So is it time to rejoice and set higher target? No, because from April onwards, the triple payments of income tax, renovation and travel will start to kick in. Good thing is the household expenses kept in line. Income from high yield accounts is nearly exhausted due to falling interest rates. There's a bunch of Tbills, invested via SRS, reaching maturity and I'm not sure what to do.

There's a series of videos produced by CNA that can be found under "Singapore's Public Housing Revealed". In them, subject matter experts and ministers articulate their thoughts to address the concerns of many people who view housing as becoming unaffordable. I liked the presentation feel and visual cues to give instant snapshots of the current status. The underlying message is, HDB tries its best to balance needs of first time buyers, retirees, singles, large households etc while incurring growing deficits. It's no easy task. During the developmental years of Singapore, HDB is seen as walking side by side with the average citizen. Today, opinions have shifted, depending on where one stands. Because we are experiencing something that's never been felt before; aging flats with a lease decay. On principle, the government needs to retain control over land use through recycling for future generations. It was stated by PM Wong that land would be returned to the state upon lease expiry. He probably played it safe by not clearly saying that it's zero flat value and also not alarm people over the likelihood of falling valuation when the time comes. This leaves open the idea of compensation. Along with sketchy details of Vers, that indicates the government is not ready for discussion on those flats due to be returned in about thirty years. One issue the government finds itself in a bind is due to the CPF and other funds stored under the flat's value. I wonder in the future, how many people can have the situation of having a fully paid HDB flat, reach retirement age and able to depend on CPF payout for a comfortable remaining years. Much complaints relate to having to work a lifetime to repay home loan and left with barely something. In my opinion, the best hope is for Singapore to progress well economically which then anchors the land value and people's lifestyle. We have performed the first miracle when no one gave us a chance, now we need to produce another.

Dividends as of March 2025: $2008.62 (avg $669.54 per month)

Tip: Black Stallion Napa Chardonnay 2021, apple crumble, brownie, good oak density and mouthfeel

Month of March 2025

There were lots of golfing done with four rounds played and a walkabout for the Liv event. The latter was the first time I watched live. Along with two friends, we gathered for the Saturday tee-off at Sentosa Golf Club. The heat started at 9am and stayed throughout. But the golf on display was even hotter. I witnessed from three feet away how a professional player could block out crowd ogling and launched one beautiful shot after another. Some of the plays were so ridiculously good that for the rest of us, it's only in our imagination. The margins are so fine at this level that you could also feel a player's pain at missing a crucial putt. The scenic course was transformed into a carnival atmosphere with music and screens placed all over. This enjoyable day was made even better when we ate a fine seafood lunch along with a cooling Chablis. My sunburnt neck and face were the only downers of a marvelous outing.

The weather's been playing games recently. One moment it's pouring heavily over days, then later switching to searing heat. This upsets my rhythm of a running routine as I couldn't slot in good intervals of rest. So to compensate for missing a run, I tried to go longer distance by 20% more. The consequence was immediate. Besides the usual tiredness, my calves cramped up and needed around two days for that feeling to subside. Shoes could be a contributing factor too. My current pair had been in service for three years so I thought to check out those suitable for 5-10km. Hope to find a cheap one over the next few months.

The youngest son suggested Haidilao for dinner over a weekend. Without reservation, we arrived early but were made to wait two hours. Good thing that we were not in a rush. While waiting, my second son completed a Rubik cube challenge and the reward was a free fried mantou dish. We were munching on freshly cooked french fries when our turn was called. The place was lively with many birthday celebrations and performances. I noticed there were several new food items and the soup base was cheaper. Final bill came up to 10% less than our usual spending.

Tip: Louis Jadot Macon Villages Blanc 2022, dry medium body, straight up day drink

Finance Investment Movement 55

The company earnings season largely met expectations and many raised dividends presumably for SG60 celebration. My overall portfolio value climbed to 4.2%, underpinned by CPF contributions and lower expenses. The Reits stayed resilient and will provide nice payouts in the coming quarter. I'm thinking to add CICT and FCT if prices are attractive. Options trading contributed a nice amount. Throughout the month, I ate at home mostly and cooked as much as possible over the weekends. I hope to emulate this for March.

Going by the recent Budget announcement, Singapore's economy is swimmingly doing well. It grew 4.4% last year and achieved surplus in excess of $6b! Forecasts say that we can expect 2025 to be positive with around 2% growth, another surplus bonanza and an array of handouts eg CDC, U-save vouchers, SG60 gifts etc. It's like Christmas arrived early with presents. While I won't mind the government's generosity, there are some areas that can be better addressed. One, the fertility rate stayed at a historic low of 0.97, meaning that citizens aren't persuaded enough in spite of the better economic mood, support measures and a Dragon year. Cost pressures are surely one of many considerations. Perhaps the government can be bold and provide free textbooks at $200 per child (Singapore citizens only). Assuming 300000 per cohort of primary and secondary school students, that would incur $60m annually. A further boost would be to fully subsidize school fees which require another $108m (assume $30 per month). Two, the corporate income tax rebate will help a little for SMEs. Even if they are not profitable, $2000 cash grant would be given. In my view, this extra $2000 ain't moving any needle. What's needed is an ecosystem of local companies collaborating and preserving jobs. The government identified arts as an industry in need with the Culture pass, give them the funds instead. Or they could do a broad scheme for certain trades and direct those funds towards an insurance for retrenchment or job loss. Three, the $200 cap for personal income tax rebate is a token amount. I rather this be allocated to the lower tiered earners and none for those in the higher tax brackets. Four, not much was mentioned on housing except HDB flats will continue to remain affordable and there would be adequate supply. I propose a special tax for owners who specifically have HDB and private housing (they number around 3%). This group of people enjoy HDB flat subsidy/assessment benefits/rental income. The HDB flat is a public good and should stick to the concept of home for stay and not as an investment asset. Since the government disallowed private home owners from buying a HDB flat, then the same should apply vice versa or at the very least be taxed (heavily) for this unbalanced privilege. If anyone wants to invest in property, the private market is available. Leave the HDB out, period. Election is nearby so let’s see what other policies appear later.

Dividends as of February 2025: $1114.75 (avg $557.38 per month)

Tip: Kavalan Reserve Single Malt Madeira Cask, toffee, nutty, a great mouthful with an added spice yet smooth and inviting

Month of February 2025

For the first two weeks of the month, it was still CNY mood as visits continued for personal and work reasons. It wasn't plain sailing as I felt sick with sore throat and runny nose, yet knowing I have to turn up. On one occasion, after hanging around for half an hour, I left as the event had close to a thousand people. Too noisy and difficult to have meaningful conversations. There's no need to squeeze out of car park as well. Among other events, I got to make new friends and enjoyed a meal at Shangri La.

I was at a mall and needed to wait an hour before picking my son from school. The food court was crowded and I had to share a table with a young lady. While eating, she was glued on the phone, intently focused on the drama. With the loud volume, I inadvertently became her audience. My lunch was over in minutes and I quickly left. But there was still time to kill. The problem with malls nowadays is there are no public seats for a short break. So I went loitering around and might as well clock some steps. The shop, kskin, soon appeared and intrigued me since it offered fast service for a reasonable price. As I scanned through the options, a skincare specialist came forward. In the end, I paid $50 for a cleanse and glow facial. It's been more than ten years since I had one and due to CNY period, there was a lucky draw and I won a reed diffuser! This was unplanned and turned into a nice experience.

Due to an upcoming school cross country event, the younger sons were a little jittery over their inability to complete it. Hence we found an afternoon and went for a trial run, along with the eldest as well. The objective was simple; target 2km non stop jog and time individually. We did warm up amid a light breeze. It looked like it might rain but we opted to continue. At the start, the two older ones sped off. I was amazed at their pace but since my role was to follow the youngest, I thought it was easier. Yet he also strode rather quickly, at least for a kilometer, until he gradually slowed down. The old man in me tried to keep up as this was above my usual pace. Feeling a bit breathless, I had to nonetheless encourage the youngest not to stop. He eventually timed a little more than 6min/km. That was the first time we ran seriously together. Our next objective is to do this at least once a week and evaluate after a month on the improvements made.

Tip: Hakutsuru Alternative Junmai Daiginjo, slight aged and caramel, mellow and medium body

Finance Investment Movement 54

 

The above is a new tracker that captures my ongoing effort to achieve my overall portfolio improvement. I have set 5% as the target this year, taking into account that I have an upcoming big renovation expense and other bills payable eg school fees, insurance, tax etc. This month saw an increase of 3.1%, getting off to a positive start. It mainly came from the CPF interest and year end bonus. The stock market rally also contributed. Contrary to previous years, I was actively trading options in January that earned some grocery funds. I seem to be getting the hang of it although my skillset is still at novice level.

With the start of Trump's tariff, it will be some time before a regular person feels any impact. As businesses try to work out solutions, it's prudent to keep a close watch on bread and butter issues. The EU could have been a better place but they are not united enough and face constraints. Hence, the US has to look for allies elsewhere who are close to its economic size. Trump is actually playing smart by leveraging on his country's leading position in many areas and reducing commitments to force the hands of others. For example, they are the largest foreign aid donor and since this is a voluntary act, the US can withhold any time and the receivers will plead a bargain (or it could be a cleanup of fraud as some have alluded). A strong USD makes export expensive but purchasing countries would do well to accept instead of putting on a retaliatory tariff. My opinion is Singapore will be a beneficiary as our corporate standards, judicial integrity, talent availability, financial strength and diplomatic neutrality put us in good stead to manage policy changes. Inflationary pressures will persist while a global rebalancing occurs. I foresee interest rates maintaining/reducing slightly throughout the year, a relatively strong Singapore economy and more expensive holiday travels.

Dividends as of January 2025: $381.20

Tip: William Fevre Fourchaume Premier Cru 2020, light wild flowers, gentle lemon hint within a medium body