Finance Investment Movement 55

The company earnings season largely met expectations and many raised dividends presumably for SG60 celebration. My overall portfolio value climbed to 4.2%, underpinned by CPF contributions and lower expenses. The Reits stayed resilient and will provide nice payouts in the coming quarter. I'm thinking to add CICT and FCT if prices are attractive. Options trading contributed a nice amount. Throughout the month, I ate at home mostly and cooked as much as possible over the weekends. I hope to emulate this for March.

Going by the recent Budget announcement, Singapore's economy is swimmingly doing well. It grew 4.4% last year and achieved surplus in excess of $6b! Forecasts say that we can expect 2025 to be positive with around 2% growth, another surplus bonanza and an array of handouts eg CDC, U-save vouchers, SG60 gifts etc. It's like Christmas arrived early with presents. While I won't mind the government's generosity, there are some areas that can be better addressed. One, the fertility rate stayed at a historic low of 0.97, meaning that citizens aren't persuaded enough in spite of the better economic mood, support measures and a Dragon year. Cost pressures are surely one of many considerations. Perhaps the government can be bold and provide free textbooks at $200 per child (Singapore citizens only). Assuming 300000 per cohort of primary and secondary school students, that would incur $60m annually. A further boost would be to fully subsidize school fees which require another $108m (assume $30 per month). Two, the corporate income tax rebate will help a little for SMEs. Even if they are not profitable, $2000 cash grant would be given. In my view, this extra $2000 ain't moving any needle. What's needed is an ecosystem of local companies collaborating and preserving jobs. The government identified arts as an industry in need with the Culture pass, give them the funds instead. Or they could do a broad scheme for certain trades and direct those funds towards an insurance for retrenchment or job loss. Three, the $200 cap for personal income tax rebate is a token amount. I rather this be allocated to the lower tiered earners and none for those in the higher tax brackets. Four, not much was mentioned on housing except HDB flats will continue to remain affordable and there would be adequate supply. I propose a special tax for owners who specifically have HDB and private housing (they number around 3%). This group of people enjoy HDB flat subsidy/assessment benefits/rental income. The HDB flat is a public good and should stick to the concept of home for stay and not as an investment asset. Since the government disallowed private home owners from buying a HDB flat, then the same should apply vice versa or at the very least be taxed (heavily) for this unbalanced privilege. If anyone wants to invest in property, the private market is available. Leave the HDB out, period. Election is nearby so let’s see what other policies appear later.

Dividends as of February 2025: $1114.75 (avg $557.38 per month)

Tip: Kavalan Reserve Single Malt Madeira Cask, toffee, nutty, a great mouthful with an added spice yet smooth and inviting

Month of February 2025

For the first two weeks of the month, it was still CNY mood as visits continued for personal and work reasons. It wasn't plain sailing as I felt sick with sore throat and runny nose, yet knowing I have to turn up. On one occasion, after hanging around for half an hour, I left as the event had close to a thousand people. Too noisy and difficult to have meaningful conversations. There's no need to squeeze out of car park as well. Among other events, I got to make new friends and enjoyed a meal at Shangri La.

I was at a mall and needed to wait an hour before picking my son from school. The food court was crowded and I had to share a table with a young lady. While eating, she was glued on the phone, intently focused on the drama. With the loud volume, I inadvertently became her audience. My lunch was over in minutes and I quickly left. But there was still time to kill. The problem with malls nowadays is there are no public seats for a short break. So I went loitering around and might as well clock some steps. The shop, kskin, soon appeared and intrigued me since it offered fast service for a reasonable price. As I scanned through the options, a skincare specialist came forward. In the end, I paid $50 for a cleanse and glow facial. It's been more than ten years since I had one and due to CNY period, there was a lucky draw and I won a reed diffuser! This was unplanned and turned into a nice experience.

Due to an upcoming school cross country event, the younger sons were a little jittery over their inability to complete it. Hence we found an afternoon and went for a trial run, along with the eldest as well. The objective was simple; target 2km non stop jog and time individually. We did warm up amid a light breeze. It looked like it might rain but we opted to continue. At the start, the two older ones sped off. I was amazed at their pace but since my role was to follow the youngest, I thought it was easier. Yet he also strode rather quickly, at least for a kilometer, until he gradually slowed down. The old man in me tried to keep up as this was above my usual pace. Feeling a bit breathless, I had to nonetheless encourage the youngest not to stop. He eventually timed a little more than 6min/km. That was the first time we ran seriously together. Our next objective is to do this at least once a week and evaluate after a month on the improvements made.

Tip: Hakutsuru Alternative Junmai Daiginjo, slight aged and caramel, mellow and medium body

Finance Investment Movement 54

 

The above is a new tracker that captures my ongoing effort to achieve my overall portfolio improvement. I have set 5% as the target this year, taking into account that I have an upcoming big renovation expense and other bills payable eg school fees, insurance, tax etc. This month saw an increase of 3.1%, getting off to a positive start. It mainly came from the CPF interest and year end bonus. The stock market rally also contributed. Contrary to previous years, I was actively trading options in January that earned some grocery funds. I seem to be getting the hang of it although my skillset is still at novice level.

With the start of Trump's tariff, it will be some time before a regular person feels any impact. As businesses try to work out solutions, it's prudent to keep a close watch on bread and butter issues. The EU could have been a better place but they are not united enough and face constraints. Hence, the US has to look for allies elsewhere who are close to its economic size. Trump is actually playing smart by leveraging on his country's leading position in many areas and reducing commitments to force the hands of others. For example, they are the largest foreign aid donor and since this is a voluntary act, the US can withhold any time and the receivers will plead a bargain (or it could be a cleanup of fraud as some have alluded). A strong USD makes export expensive but purchasing countries would do well to accept instead of putting on a retaliatory tariff. My opinion is Singapore will be a beneficiary as our corporate standards, judicial integrity, talent availability, financial strength and diplomatic neutrality put us in good stead to manage policy changes. Inflationary pressures will persist while a global rebalancing occurs. I foresee interest rates maintaining/reducing slightly throughout the year, a relatively strong Singapore economy and more expensive holiday travels.

Dividends as of January 2025: $381.20

Tip: William Fevre Fourchaume Premier Cru 2020, light wild flowers, gentle lemon hint within a medium body

Month of January 2025

I had coffee with an old friend, J, who just quit his job a week before the meetup. Our friendship journey started when he joined the industry and my company was the first client he met as part of his training. We formed a natural partnership due to work requirements and got together regularly, for discussions and drinks. When J got married, I was one of few invited who was neither relative nor colleague. Later on, he had two children. We progressed well within our respective companies and even though I moved on to a new role, we still kept in good contact through sports and meals. So it was a shock when J informed that he tendered his resignation at the beginning of the year. He got stuck with office politics even though he's a middle manager and had a good relationship with his boss whom I also know. Over the years, J was an astute investor and the reward now is that he could afford to leave work without worries. It helped that his wife is in a good paying and stable job. J joked that he's now a full time dad and had no plans beyond the next three months. I have been fortunate to witness J's life, from this first job, to marriage and child, purchasing his first car and property and going from head of hair to half bald. Let's see where life takes him next.

It's been raining much and the weather's cool on most days. There's a chill and comfortable feeling at home, especially over the weekend. Great for hotpot, jazz music and soft conversations. But somehow, I had also been in situations that made me fume on a number of wet mornings. With a continuous drizzle, it's understandable that road traffic may be a little slow. Just this month alone, I encountered several instances of inconsiderate and dangerous drivers. A Honda tried to squeeze (at speed) onto a merging lane, a Benz drove into the yellow box that caused a jam for turning traffic during peak hour, a Lexus made an abrupt lane change on an upslope, an Audi weaved in and out of traffic and the usual BMW tried to do last minute filter out of an expressway. Among these, four of them had a private hire vehicle label though I don't think they were carrying passengers. A while ago, around 630am, I saw an old man (around 70 years) going at 60km/h on CTE lane 2. He was unable to keep his car in line and kept veering to the right before correcting. That's simply an accident waiting to happen. I tend not to dwell too long on such things but some people just shouldn't be driving.

The LA wildfires is a tragedy as the scale of destruction is monstrous. It gained more media coverage due to its celebrity enclave. In the aftermath, crowdfunding to rebuild the area started. That's mainly because most of the houses were non-insured or had been dropped at least six months prior. Why did the residents not safeguard their assets? The excuse of expensive premiums is a lousy one. If one can live in a prestigious neighbourhood, paying that bit more can be expected. Or one could have spent money to fireproof the exterior. Months of dry weather had given them ample warning to take action, yet most chose not to. This incident reminded me of a similar situation happening in Singapore. Senior citizens who live in private houses who couldn't afford to pay property tax. They cite sentimental value and being cash poor as reasons to ask for help. Well, if one does not have a big head, then don't wear a big hat. Every decision has a consequence. These people just got to live with theirs.

Tip: Domaine Thibaud Boudignon Anjou Blanc 2021, lemon, persimmon, fine acidity wrapped in white flowers

Finance Investment Movement 53

Today, I wish to start the year in a dream, somewhat unreal yet hoping it's not. Something that's on every working person's mind, at least partially. Our jobs and economy are in a state of constant challenge. There's the real fear of income disruption or unexpected business changes in an angsty world. So this dream is about achieving peace. Can we expect the wars to stop in 2025? I don't think so. Worse, there could be more conflicts brewing underneath such as the borders of Tibet China, perhaps a clash between Moldova and Russia or another uprising attempt in Middle East. Trump will just happen to wade in and add to the spice, already triggering the crosshairs of Mexico, Canada and Greenland. Maybe add the Caribbean Islands into his growing bucket list. He is the X factor and in a disease sense, unknown and worrisome. I hope he learnt from previous experience and provides realistic fixes to the US economy, likewise for Xi.

That's not all. On an individual front, we can't do much for the above. Therefore, the dream extends to achieving a peace of mind, specifically I look forward to retirement. Although I have potentially decades to offer physically, such a thought has been coming up more regularly. It's draining to be stuck in a discontented wider environment and there's just a great deal of nonsense going on. To be financially free is the first step. It's something I have been working on but the pace has quickened considerably now. Target set: Five years, $2000 per month passive income. If possible, three years and that's why it's called a dream.

Tip: Domaine Ninot Chaponneiere 2021, limestone, slight oak, raisin, nice with white fish

A Trip With Friends

This trip was booked early this year for 13 people. I went with A and B (both families of four) with B's wife being the main planner and me playing the local tour guide. After all, some either have not been to Taiwan before or the last time was more than ten years ago. Our travel habits are similar and make good companions while the kids are close in age. Even with a plan in hand, we went with the flow and made changes on the spur. All in, everyone's feedback was positive.

Taoyuan

Day 1 - Arriving at the airport around 4pm, I was excited as we spun the Lucky draw. Previous trips garnered prizes such as $5000 Twd and other cash gifts. With a bigger group, the chances ought to be better. The result was no one won anything. Well, not everyday is Sunday. Our private hire bus driver, Mr Chen, met us at the car park and off we went to Cozzi Blu hotel. The uneventful day ended with dinner at Gloria outlet's food court followed by a little shopping trip.

Yilan

Day 2 - The next morning, after a comfortable rest, the day began with breakfast at a cafe nearby. It was manned by 2 people in a 2 storey shop. One was the cook and the other was the cashier. The latter doubled as the delivery person. He ran (not walk) up and down, in between taking orders, as the crowd built up. Food was pretty good. Feeling recharged, we visited the Zhang Mei Ama farm to be amused by the furry ones. The alpaca area was mostly deserted as many flocked over to the capybaras and mouse deers. It was past noon when we left for lunch and subsequently to the Jiaoxi hot spring area for a foot spa. We chilled around for 30 minutes before going to check in at our home for the next three nights, a 5-bedroom Minsu. It had a KTV and pool table room, Nintendo switch and mahjong table for entertainment. After a short tour introduction by the owners, we did a quick turnaround and proceeded to dinner. Weng Yao Chicken is a must try. Its tender bits arose from skillful baking in a earthen jar. We needed this as the weather cooled to low single digits and our beds froze.

Day 3 - It was time to be farmers at Sanxing Sinbow where we harvested scallions. As the soil was hard, one had to dig into the roots to pull out a complete piece but most of us created a mess and tried to salvage what was available. Our group was the only brave one to be wearing shorts in such cold weather. That was my advice and proved useful when one of the kids fell onto a muddy patch. Freshly fried scallion cakes awaited us after a clean up which we had handmade prior to entering the field. That was really delicious, attested one kid who is vegetable adverse. The next activity moved to Kavalan whiskey distillery. Only the adults enjoyed and I bought some fine samples. Dinner was at Luodong Night Market and my family ate mutton soup noodles and some other snacks.

Day 4 - Mr Chen cautioned against driving up Taipingshan as the roads might be slippery. So a detour was made to National Centre for Traditional Arts which to me, is more of a leisure walk in a big park than cultural appreciation (considering I was here last year, mentioned here). The kids enjoyed feeding the ducks and fishes while I watched on. There was enough of the afternoon left to make a last minute insertion to Fang Yue Tea Garden. A kind lady welcomed us to the shed where she taught us to make tea cakes. We also got to see a small section of the tea plants before calling it a day. As the weather drizzled, the three guys went out to do a takeaway while the wives and kids stayed back. After all, it was our last night and they should make good use of the home facilities.

Qingjing

Day 5 - At last, I did my first run with A on a wet and cold morning. Not bad for me to complete 4km considering the amount of food we had so far. Then we checked out and began a long journey towards  the mountains. Halfway, we stopped by Wuqi Fisherman's Wharf for a sumptuous seafood lunch. The Penghu fresh oysters were crunchy and delightful. Two hours later, we finally arrived at Sea of Clouds Villa. The temperature, as expected, was cold at around 10 degrees Celsius. As it was already dark, dinner was settled at the inhouse restaurant which served homely local dishes. You can't really go wrong with seasonal ingredients and simple cooking. The room felt like a freezer with no heating elements. However, there was a life saviour in the form of heated bed pads. My wife and I have not used this before. We understood its usefulness once the bed warmed up and tucked ourselves underneath the blanket. That was a divine moment.

Day 6 - From the top of the mountain, we had to go all the way down in order to get to Sun Moon Lake. It's really more of a tourist attraction as there are many other beautiful lakes elsewhere. But it's a well organized area where the boat operators ferried people around like clockwork to Shuishe, Xuanguang and Ita Thao. The onshore vendors did their part to welcome visitors by enticing them with local products such as black tea ice cream, tea leaf eggs, rice millet wine and wild boar skewers. Our group also did the cable car ride before lunch amid the crowded street. Then we hopped back on the bus for a ride up again. It was about 4pm and since there's still time and daylight, we decided to do the Qingjing Skywalk. The scenery was breathtaking due to clear skies and a setting sun. Distance was around 1km downslope and the cameras worked nonstop. Such was its beauty and became one of the highlights of the trip.

Miaoli

Day 7 - We said goodbye to the bed before driving three minutes and reaching the popular Qingjing Farm (or Qing Qing Cao Yuan). There was to be no sheep shearing performance today so we just wandered around the big space. The kids got to feed the free roaming sheep although one has to be careful not to step onto their digested "gold". While we were busily taking photos, that was when I learnt something new. A's wife showed us an edit function on her phone that could remove any background noise i.e photobombers. We spent about 1.5 hours before leaving for lunch at a Hakka restaurant. Next, it was off to a Dahu strawberry farm. Years ago, one had to walk along the narrow muddy pathway and stoop low to reach a strawberry. Today, it's grown on an elevated platform over tarpaulin flooring. The cost was 1Twd per gram and my family plucked 700g worth. A's kids loved it so much that they gathered 1.8kg! The accommodation tonight was at Blue Magpie Resort where we got to experience glamping in a caravan. Dinner was a kids' favourite which we bought from the Golden Arches.

Taipei

Day 8 - I was a little worried about the space constraints in the caravan but any apprehensiveness was dispelled by the cosy beds and surprisingly large bathroom. After a simple sandwich breakfast, we were off to our last location. Traffic was smooth as we arrived at Hotel Midtown Richardson around noon. We left the luggage at the hotel in order to take taxi to Addiction Aquatic Development. Even on a weekday, it was full of people but luckily, we secured a whole table with standing room. Each family bought their preferred dishes and shared. After that, we split. A and B went towards Taipei 101 while I opted for a foot massage. It was needed after much walking the last few days. We regrouped for dinner at the hotpot place below the hotel.

Day 9 - We decided to start early and took public transport to National Palace Museum. The kids might/might not like it but the adults went ahead with it. Entry was free for students and we got the audio translator for the kids. The displays are well spaced and even for a non-art person, it should still  be enjoyable. Spending two hours isn't enough to cover one floor but we had to make do. A pitstop was made to have lunch at an off road ramen shop, Hasumentei near Shilin Station. We were in agreement over the excellent quality plus two free noodle servings. The last activity was hotspring at Beitou. B's elder kid was looking forward to it. The mild sulfuric water is said to be a skin revitalizer. Good hotels were already taken and without reservation, it was hard to find a place unless one is willing to pay. Nevertheless, luck came to our rescue once again where three rooms were available. After 1.5h of relaxation, we continued to Ningxia Night Market for dinner.

Day 10 - There was still time for Ah Zhong Mian Xian and soya milk before Mr Chen sent us to the airport. We bade farewell and gave a tip, it was time to head home after a wonderful time with great company. Hopefully, the kids remember the trip with fond memories.

Tip: Taiwan Gold Medal beer, more malty and likable to most